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For 50 years Philippine voters have picked members of a few families to run the country. Presidents and senators keep springing from surnames such as Aquino, Arroyo, Estrada and Marcos. Yet since the 1960s, despite its strengths such as tourism and a boom in call centers, about a quarter of the population lives in poverty and its corruption ranks world No. 95 out of 168 on Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index. People feel fatigued as well now by a drug problem, as the United Nations said in 2012 their country had Asia’s highest use of methamphetamine strain known colloquially as “shabu.”
Following the lead of other countries fed up with political establishments, Filipinos are poised to elect an outsider to national politics. He’s Rodrigo Duterte, mayor of the country’s second largest city Davao. Duterte says he has cleaned up that city, a 1980s stronghold for communist rebels and a rightist vigilante group. Duterte has anchored his presidential campaign with pledges to do the same across the country after 22 years as mayor.
Philippine presidential front-runner candidate Rodrigo Duterte gestures during a campaign in Manila on April 23, 2016. Philippine presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte renewed his vow to ‘kill’ criminals during his campaign. (NOEL CELIS/AFP/Getty Images)
A Pulse Asia Research poll released Sunday found that Duterte leads other candidates, including current vice president Jejomar Binay, Sen. Grace Poe and former senator Mar Roxas. Meanwhile, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is running for vice president. Today’s president, Benigno Aquino III, must step down in June after the usual six-year term.
“The top three issues are one, poverty and jobs; two, peace and crime, especially drugs; and three, corruption and government services,” says Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Philippine advocacy group Institute for Political and Electoral Reform. “Duterte appeals to the frustration and despair of ordinary people on government actions regarding their lives. He promises quick action.”
Early word is that Aquino’s hard-line approach to China over maritime disputes and his boost in infrastructure spending to attract investors will waver little no matter who gets elected in May.
Rodrigo Duterte jumped further ahead in the Philippine presidential race, according to a new poll taken after the tough talking Davao City mayor’s inflammatory comments over the 1989 rape and murder of an Australian missionary, as the campaign enters its last two weeks.
In the latest poll published by BusinessWorld and conducted by Social Weather Stations April 18 to April 20, Duterte led with 33 percent compared with 27 percent in SWS’s previous survey. Senator Grace Poe was in second with 24 percent, while Mar Roxas, the candidate backed by outgoing President Benigno Aquino, was third on 19 percent. Vice President Jejomar Binay fell to fourth with 14 percent. The election will be held on May 9.
While Aquino has presided over the Philippines’ fastest growth since the 1970s and curbed corruption, voters appear to be embracing Duterte’s pitch as an honest broker whose tough-guy approach will enable him to get things done, particularly in areas such as cutting through infrastructure logjams and curbing crime.
"The rise of Duterte in the Philippines polls reminds me of Donald Trump’s rise in the U.S.," said Curtis S. Chin, a Milken Institute Asia Fellow and managing director of advisory firm RiverPeak Group, LLC. "Duterte and Trump have both tapped into a growing sentiment that the established political classes are not the solution to long-standing economic problems. Both the Philippines and the U.S. electorates seem to be hungering for stronger leadership."
In Sunday night’s third and final televised presidential debate, all candidates pledged to push back against claims by China to disputed islands in the South China Sea. Duterte promised to personally visit the territory to stake his nation’s claim if China refuses to accept the outcome of international arbitration at the Hague expected to be handed down in June.
"Should we win the arbitration and China doesn’t honor the ruling, I will not go to war," Duterte said. "I will ask the navy to bring me to the nearest boundary near Spratly Scarborough. I will take a jet ski, carrying the Philippine flag and I will go to China’s airport and then I will install it and say, This is ours and do what you want with me. It’s up to you. I would stake that claim."
‘Personal Aquarium’
Poe said the South China Sea was not China’s “personal aquarium,” adding that she would provide more boats to the Philippine Coast Guard, and radios to Filipino fishermen going into disputed waters, and would seek more international assistance in maintaining sovereignty.
All candidates also pledged in Sunday’s debate to introduce new laws to end the practice of labor outsourcing, or contractualization, and to extend greater assistance to Filipinos working overseas.
The latest poll which shows Duterte -- a self-confessed womanizer who minces no words about killing criminals -- extending his lead may rattle his rivals who have stuck to conventional campaign rhetoric and disapproved of his stance on women, fighting crime and managing international ties.
Economic Policy
Duterte performed poorly in a Bloomberg survey on which candidate would be the best to steer the Philippine economy after Aquino steps down. Roxas and Poe were viewed by the 10 economists surveyed as the most capable of delivering on their promises to lead the nation that’s been among the fastest growing in the world with a stock market that’s more than doubled since Aquino took office in 2010.
Last week Duterte, 71, who was first elected Davao mayor in 1988, dared the U.S. and Australia to sever diplomatic ties after ambassadors from both countries strongly condemned comments by Duterte on April 12 that an Australian missionary who was raped and murdered in a 1989 Davao City prison riot was so beautiful that, as mayor, he should have been first in line.
The mayor’s remarks were posted on YouTube and went viral on April 17, attracting front page coverage from many local dailies the next day. After first refusing to step back from the use of what he called “gutter language,’’ Duterte’s camp later issued an apology for the remarks.
Former Prosecutor
A lawyer who worked as a prosecutor in Davao for nine years before becoming vice mayor in 1986 and mayor two years later, Duterte made his reputation targeting drug traffickers and sexual predators in a broad crackdown on crime. At one point, he told criminals they had two options on how they could leave Davao: vertically or horizontally.
While Duterte was credited for transforming Davao, known as the nation’s murder capital in the 1980s, peace and order came at a cost. Human Rights Watch has accused Duterte of giving tacit support to extra judicial killings of more than 1,000 suspected criminals since the late 1990s. Duterte has denied any involvement in the killings.
12 points ahead over Grace Poe as support for her dips
MANILA(UPDATED) - Tough-talking Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte boosted his lead from his closest election rivals in the latest ABS-CBN survey by Pulse Asia taken 3 weeks before the May 9 presidential elections.
The poll was conducted from April 12-17 nationwide on a sample size of 4,000 respondents and an error margin of +/-1.5.
Nationwide, 34% picked Duterte, 12 points ahead of closest rival Senator Grace Poe, who was picked by 22%. Duterte led Poe by 7 points in the April5-10 survey of ABS-CBN by Pulse Asia.
Poe was followed closely by Vice President Jejomar Binay who was picked by 19%. Administration standard-bearer Mar Roxas was close behind at 18% with Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago closing the list at 2%.
A total of 450 respondents were polled in the National Capital Region (NCR) from April 12-17 with an error margin of +/-4.6. In Balance Luzon, 925 were polled in North and Central Luzon from April 12-17 with an error margin of +/-3.2, while 875 were polled in Southern Luzon from April 12-16 with an error margin of +/-3.3.
A total of 850 were polled in the Visayas from April 12-16 with an error margin of 3.4, while 900 were polled in Mindanao from April 12-16 with an error margin of +/-3.3.
Duterte polled almost twice as Poe in NCR, 43 pct vs 22 pct, with Binay at 19 and Roxas at 11. Poe and Binay shared the lead in Balance Luzon , 30 vs 26, with Duterte doing better than Roxas, 20 vs 14.
Roxas no longer has solo domination of the Visayas as he now shares the lead there with Duterte, 34 vs 28 (+/-3.4 error margin).
Duterte’s home base of Mindanao is clearly his with 61% score, almost 4 times the score of closest competitor Roxas.
Duterte now has solo lead across all social classes. Duterte polled 47% in Class ABC—around thrice the scores of his closest rivals, 33% in the biggest voting bloc class D—10 points ahead of closest rival Senator Poe at 23%, and 34% in Class E—11 points ahead of Poe who scored 23%.
Compared to the last survey, Duterte gained 2 points while Poe and Binay shed 3 points and 1 point, respectively. Roxas’ number did not move.
Poe remains the top second choice of voters.
The survey was conducted before Duterte’s controversial rape “joke” and statements against theUnited States and Australiagained a lot of media coverage. The controversial rape remark was said on April 12 but did not get much media attention till April 17, a Sunday. The comments against Australia and the US came after the survey.
Duterte lost points after hecursed Pope Francislast year. He later apologized.
Pulse Asia Research Director Ana Tabunda said “the figures for president and VP [vice president] can still change depending on subsequent events. Needless to say, they can stay the same. The rape joke and controversial statements [of Duterte] regarding the US and Australia are probably not yet factored in because the news on these in national newspapers appeared on the April 18th onward. TV may have reported rape joke a day ahead but that was a Sunday and the last day of field work.”
Tabunda added, “Difficult to say if the impact of the rape joke is the same as cursing of the Pope. The rape joke is not as clearly wrong as cursing the Pope. Some voters might think it was just a joke. We will know if Duterte is pulling away if his numbers in subsequent surveys increase further, whatever coverage his controversial statements get and whatever his performance in the [third presidential] debate later.”
Pulse Asia President Ronald Holmes said, “No, the figures do not reflect what may happen on May 9. The rape joke and [Duterte's] statements against the US came out in the papers a day after the field work so they are not factored in. We cannot say what the effect of these on Duterte's vote is until the next survey. Preferences for all positions, including the VP and the senatorial race, show shifts, possibly given campaign strategies and reception of messaging of candidates."
Political analyst Edna Co said, "anything can still change until the so-called hora de peligro," noting that the controversy over Duterte's rape remarks happened after the survey period.
She added: "People should know how to locate surveys. It tells something but not everything."
'DUTERTE SURGE, MOMENTUM'
University of the Philippines (UP) political analyst Ranjit Rye said the new survey "looks like a Duterte surge," but believes the race is still close.
"Three weeks is an eternity in Philippine politics. So much can still happen. The election is tight and still close. So many factors are at play so these are not yet the final numbers. Given the context, it is clear that Duterte has pulled away. He has a solid momentum going forward. This is crucial to have in the last few weeks of a tight contest. This election is for him to loose. Which is why he needs to recalibrate his campaign towards voter mobilization and vote protection. His alliances and their machinery have to be in place. He needs to go beyond singing to his core and to start convincing that segment of the skeptical electorate that he is a statesman capable of policy coherence, of setting up a government, and of taking over. I am certain the message will still be the same but the rhetoric will tone down,"
Rye said the candidates should do well in the third and last Comelec-sanctioned debate to be aired by ABS-CBN on Sunday.
"All the candidates need a strong debate performance. We are in the period of negative campaigning so expect controversy as candidates try to change perception. The Digong joke has had an effect...But at the moment, it looks like a Duterte surge."
De La Salle University (DLSU) Prof. Richard Heydarian said momentum is clearly with the Davao City mayor.
"The latest survey shows that Duterte has further strengthened his stronghold in Mindanao as well as among ABC. Momentum is absolutely with him, and the Duterte support looks more like a movement than just an electoral campaign. Yet, we must wait for the next survey on April 18-23 before we can fully assess the electoral fallout of his rape joke, which may help Poe (strong second preferred candidate) regain some points. At this point though, Duterte seeks to have developed 'anti-fragility'; like a Teflon, he seems to be able to get away with crossing red lines all the time."
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